Cover of the book: “L’heure des prédateurs” from Giuliano Da Empoli
In his book “L’heure des prédateurs (The Hour of the Predator ),” Giuliano Da Empoli writes, “Three months before the invasion of Ukraine, Surkov, who had been dismissed by Putin some time before, published an article in which everything was already said. Every society, he wrote, is subject to the physical law of entropy. No matter how stable it may be, in the absence of external intervention, it eventually produces chaos within. Up to a certain point, it is possible to manage this, but the only way to solve the problem definitively is to export it. According to Surkov, the great empires of history regenerate themselves by shifting the chaos they produce beyond their borders. This was the case with the Romans in ancient times, and, according to the author, with the Americans in the 20th century. It is also the case with Russia, “for which constant expansion is not just an idea, but the very raison d’être of our history.”
And when exporting turmoil fails to reestablish stability to the country, the country’s leader is sent into retirement, one way or another. The writer adds: “When chaos exceeds a certain stage, the only way to restore order is to identify a scapegoat. And the leader, whoever he may be, is always a scapegoat waiting in the wings. Tolstoy compares him to ‘a ram fattened for the slaughterhouse”.” (Deepl translation)
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Of the 55 aircraft of this model built in the 1980s, only 26 remain in service worldwide. The Antonov 124 can carry a load 17% greater than that of the C-5A Galaxy.
I took the first photo in close-up to emphasize the enormity of the aircraft compared to a human. Note also the “Be brave like Kharkiv” logo on the nose of the aircraft, in reference to the war between Ukraine and Russia.
Antonov AN 124-100M departing the Québec Jean-Lesage international airport (CYQB) for Harrisburg (KMDT) in the United States.
Tips in photography
The aircraft took off from runway 24 bound for Harrisburg (KMDT) in Pennsylvania. As the runway was wet, a photographer positioned at the threshold of runway 24 to observe the takeoff would have seen only water being lifted by the engines.
The thresholds of runways 06 and 29 were therefore an excellent choice. Runway 29 provided a nice side-on shot with no visual contaminants. Curiously, while many photography enthusiasts were massed near the thresholds of 06 and 24, I was alone near 29. This made it possible to get a shot from an original angle.
As the cargo plane was quite a distance from my position, I used a Canon 70-200mm f2.8L IS II USM telephoto lens. An acceptable shutter speed to avoid motion blur meant sacrificing depth of field.
The full-frame sensor’s 50.6 megapixels then made it possible to crop the subject sufficiently without compromising photo quality.
Photography technique
A good photography session goes hand in hand with proper planning. Listen to ground frequency 121.9, control tower 118.65 and terminal 127.85 to improve your chances of success.
A cell phone allows you to use the Flightradar24 application (for scheduled arrivals and departures and current trajectories). Flightaware is also an excellent choice. The cell phone can also be used to find out if there are any road closures around the airport that would prevent us from getting to our desired destination. It also provides information on current weather conditions and forecasts. In Canada, the AWWS site is a mine of information for aviation enthusiasts.
French graphic novel on Elon Musk by author Darryl Cunningham, Delcourt/Ancrages edition.
The Musk family
I appreciate real-life stories, and especially investigations that study human behaviour. Reading this graphic novel in French about Elon Musk, one grasps the character’s high level of initiative. He likes risking a lot when creating a new company. This characteristic is also present in the family genealogy, starting with the grandfather. However, they clearly act without concern for social norms.
Elon’s main desire is to use his talent and creativity to influence the course of the world, particularly when it comes to the Internet, renewable energies and space. As well as mentioning Musk’s successes, the graphic novel also highlights the grey areas that are too often overlooked.
Considering that mankind will one day colonize space, Elon Musk looked to buy a rocket, but they were all too expensive. So he created Spacex and a team of Spacex scientists invented a rocket named Falcon 1, which the company succeeded in launching into orbit after six years’ work. In 2011, Spacex built the world’s first reusable rocket. A year later, the Falcon 9 equipped with a Dragon capsule refuelled the International Space Station (ISS). In light of this success, the government reinjected another $440 million into Spacex for development. I write “another $440 million” because this was not the government’s initial investment in the firm.
Companies narrowly saved
As we read the book, we realize how many times Musk’s businesses have come close to disaster, only to be narrowly saved by perseverance, lots of luck, top-level government relations and whimsical promises.
Just think of Tesla and Spacex, two endangered companies that were spared from bankruptcy by a sudden injection of public money in the form of a $1.6 billion contract from NASA. This was preceded and followed by substantial loans from the US government: “Without the support of American taxpayers, Musk’s fortune would not exist.”
The book also mentions a possible fraud, as the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) filed a complaint for misleading tweets about Tesla. These tweets were said to have pushed up the share price by 6%. A settlement was reached a week later between Musk and the SEC. On this subject, Musk neither admits nor denies the allegations. “Musk and Tesla had to pay a fine of $20 million each and Musk had to step down as Chairman of Tesla’s Board of Directors for three years while remaining CEO.”
A page from the French graphic novel: Elon Musk: enquête sur un nouveau maître du monde.
Whimsical Promises or Unfounded Announcements
Musk has talent when it comes to touting his products. But the author specifies this: “There’s no denying that Musk is determined, intractable and possesses a real gift for self-promotion. That said, he’s not an inventor, let alone a scientist.”
The book lists a number of whimsical promises, while pointing out that the media help Musk by passing on information that is not systematically verifiable or proven. The result is that the average reader is left with the impression that Elon Musk developed Spacex and Tesla all by himself: “The legend of the self-made billionaire will always be more seductive than the banal reality”.
As an example of whimsical promises, Musk announces that all battery recharging will be free for the Tesla Model S. This is nothing but hot air. He also declares that a Tesla will drive autonomously between Los Angeles and New York in 2017. At the time of writing, no such promise has materialized.
He also made other daring statements in 2016 when he founded Neuralink. This company has been criticized because the research it funds is poorly controlled. According to the book, it generates unnecessary animal suffering. In 2024, Elon Musk reveals that “his company has successfully implanted a device capable of ‘reading thoughts’ in an individual’s brain […]”. He gives no details of the location of the operation or the results.
Musk also makes unfounded statements about vaccination and the virulence of Covid-19. While he declares that this virus has a very low mortality rate and that he will not be vaccinated, the WHO announces in 2023 that the planet is at over three million deaths. He changes his mind and gets vaccinated. But what effect have his words had on recalcitrant Americans?
Elon Musk, Twitter and X
“Since its takeover by Musk, Twitter (or rather ‘X’) has been a tool for promoting the interests, prejudices and conspiracy theories of the right-wing parties of the American political class. This bias has brought a tidal wave of racism, anti-Semitism, climate skepticism, LGBTQ+ hate and medical fake news to the site.”
Elon Musk and Long-Termism
Long-termism and the colonization of various planets are themes dear to Elon Musk. Here’s what the book has to say about it: “Long-termism is an extremely dangerous ideology. It’s a secular religion built around the worship of ‘future value’ whose ethos absolves you from worrying about threats like climate change and global poverty, while making you a good person because you care about the future of humanity as a race that has conquered other planets.”
“No one should have the discretionary power that Elon Musk enjoys, because he hasn’t earned it and he doesn’t owe it to himself alone. He doesn’t understand how much his success owes to privilege and luck. As a result, he thinks he’s much smarter than he really is.”
Elon Musk and US President Donald Trump
If the attitude and decisions that characterize Elon Musk in entrepreneurship are transposed to the state, they could undermine the American president’s aspirations regarding his vision of American politics and the actions to be taken in the face of future challenges.
For example, Musk is known for avoiding confrontation with the Chinese president, as China is Tesla’s second-largest market. But Trump didn’t hesitate in his first term to impose substantial tariffs on China. Musk has also “directly interfered in Ukraine’s fight against Russian invasion”. The strategic interests of the two individuals could diverge significantly at times.
But it must also be considered that the actions of the two men could come into phase, which would mean far more rapid and far-reaching upheavals than anticipated.
One thing is certain: the Trump/Musk duo’s solutions to America’s problems will surprise observers of the political and economic scene. The Musk family has never been concerned about the dust they kick up when it comes to pushing their ideas forward. And Trump’s reductive analysis of the cause of America’s problems will do nothing to reassure the various national and international players. This can be seen in his current comments on Greenland, the Panama Canal and Canada.
The countries targeted by this duo’s initiatives will have to expect anything, and use their creativity, fighting spirit and composure to impose respect and restraint.
The graphic novel: La fortune de Poutine (Putin’s fortune).
This graphic novel in French on Putin’s fortune recounts the events surrounding Vladimir Putin‘s rise to power and the establishment of his personal fortune. The latter is built through the exfiltration of colossal sums belonging to the Russian people, which are redirected to shell companies and tax havens.
As the story spans several decades, the reader becomes familiar with a multitude of company names and key political and economic figures.
As in the case of other major powers, there are also political and economic wheeling and dealing.
Russia’s power structure differs from that of the West. Relationships with the president play a much more important role than in the West. Benefits are granted in exchange for unwavering loyalty. The links between Silvio Berlusconi and Putin are just one example.
The scale of outflows of money from Russia for discreet purposes is astonishing. To cite just one example, the author notes the creation of Operation Luch (a capital flight estimated at $50 billion) in 1990 to counter the changes brought about by Gorbachev. This involved dipping into secret KGB funds abroad to enrich a fund that could be used to ensure the survival of the party and other vested interests.
“Since Putin came to power, the total amount of dirty money taken out of Russia and laundered through Western banks has been at least $1,000,000,000 (one thousand billion dollars)!
So, the West’s hands are not clean when it comes to what’s going on in Russia. When there’s quick money to be made and shareholders expect an unreasonable balance sheet, virtue takes a back seat to practicality. European accomplices include Danske Bank (Denmark), SEB and Swedbank (Sweden), Crédit Suisse, Banca Intesa (Italy), Deutsche Bank Russia, Appleby-Estera (offshore services firm), Cyprus (financial services firms), Price Waterhouse Coopers.
The reader also notes the accumulation of suicides by all kinds of officials over the years. For example, the author notes the disguised suicides of Nikolai Kruchina, Georgy Pavlov and Dimitri Lissovolik. These men, with their precarious balance, all had the annoying habit of taking the air on a balcony too high for their capacity. The KGB doubted the reliability of these men, who managed the party’s secret funds in the West.
Poisoning (with the poison Novitchok) is also a favored method for ironing out political differences. But this state of affairs is already well known to Westerners, as most failed or successful operations are the subject of numerous articles in the media. For example, this was the case for Navalny and Skripal. For Yushchenko, the winner of the Ukrainian presidential elections, dioxin was used but the source was not confirmed.
Under Putin, the oligarchs can keep the fortunes acquired through the many privatizations, but there is no longer any question of them interfering in political affairs. The book also looks at the deteriorating relationship between Putin and oligarchs such as Berezovsky (found hanged in his London bathroom) and Khodorkovsky.
If a devoted collaborator changes sides, at best he can survive by leaving the country and remaining apolitical. Otherwise, his plane may explode in flight, as in the case of Prigozhin.
The book shows how Ivan Rybkyn, a political opponent of Putin’s in 2004, withdrew after an impromptu van ride. It seems that he was seized and forced into the vehicle. This experience and the likely discussions that took place during the ride were enough to convince the candidate that he wasn’t really cut out for politics.
A page from the graphic novel “La fortune de Poutine”.
In the 90s, the Tambov mafia clan protected Putin and Sobchak and helped run the port of St. Petersburg. This did not prevent a “road accident” involving Vladimir Putin’s daughters and wife. Those dissatisfied with their share of the cake raised the stakes, and Putin had to bring the families together to work things out between them. Pragmatically, he sent his daughters to Germany for their safety. The legal guardian was Matthias Warnig, a former STASI officer.
The author points out that Russian money was used to influence the Brexit result (51.89%), this with the aim of weakening Europe. Then, as we already know, Russia influenced the voting result in key US states to help elect Donald Trump.
The graphic novel ends with a documentary dossier, with photos, drawings and references for those who want more information.
What about Putin’s fortune? According to the authors’ research, it’s between 150 and 250 billion euros.
The Antonov 225 taking-off from the Antonov airport (UKKM) in Ukraine heading to Sochi, Russia.
Today, the Antonov 225 is reborn for another leg of this world tour of flight simulation. In reality, this aircraft was destroyed by Russia during its invasion of Ukraine. At the time of writing, war is still raging between the two nations. But in virtual mode, we have more latitude to alter the course of events and simulate peace.
So, we leave Ukraine’s Antonov airport (UKKM), fly over Crimea and then stop off in Sochi, Russia (airport code USSR). Our destination is Lublin airport (EPLB) in Poland.
The weather is looking good, with clear skies for the arrival in Sochi. The scenery around Sochi is splendid, and it’s best to land in good weather.
Take-off is a breeze, but the Antonov 225’s heaviness takes some getting used to. The weight of the aircraft means that every time the pilot makes a maneuver with the flight controls, initially nothing happens. Then, the aircraft slowly begins to obey. So, you have to expect delays and anticipate the outcome of maneuvers.
Navigraph is used for navigation. Of course, I plan to deviate from the initial route to fly over Crimea and then on to Sochi.
The pink triangle indicates the position of the Antonov 225 entering Crimea on its flight to Sochi in Russia and then Poland.
Below, the ploughed fields of the Ukraine. Ukraine is considered the breadbasket of the world.
The Antonov 225 over the cultivated fields of Ukraine.
Crimea is a beautiful region from the air, but fiercely contested on the ground. A pilot would say that today, it’s more turbulent down there than up.
The Antonov 225 entering Crimea on its flight to Russia then Poland
A few minutes later, the flight over the Sea of Azov begins in the direction of Sochi.
The approach is spectacular, with the surrounding mountains. As with all large aircraft, the Antonov has to be stabilized well in advance to avoid overcorrecting on final.
Antonov 225 on long final for runway 06 in Sochi (USSR), Russia.
The cargo plane stops in an extremely short distance for such a heavy aircraft. When the thrust is reversed on six engines, there’s no need to set the brakes to maximum, especially in Sochi. We make a short stopover.
Antonov 225 parked for a short stopover at Sochi (USSR), Russia.
Just after our arrival, a Russian Sukhoi 27 military jet makes a low pass near the tower. The fighter jet was created at the time in response to the construction of the American F-15.
A Sukhoi Su-27 makes a low pass at the Sochi Airport (USSR), Russia.
The flight resumes in the late afternoon. Below, the Antonov 225 is on final approach to runway 25 at Lublin airport in Poland.
Antonov 225 on final for rwy 25 at Lublin airport, Poland
The thrust reversers allow the aircraft to exit onto the taxiway in the middle of the runway.
Antonov 225 with thrust reversers after landing at Lublin (EPLB) airport in Poland.
We get a little help with parking.
Antonov 225 with some help for the parking at Lublin airport, Poland
The next stage of this round-the-world flight simulation will be with a smaller aircraft, heading for Germany. A flight over Göttingen is planned with a helicopter (D-JORG). The trip will end at Paderborn Lippstadt Airport (EDLP).
The world’s only example of this aircraft was destroyed at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, no one can prevent a virtual aircraft from surviving (even computer) attacks. Note that the entire purchase price of the virtual aircraft in the Microsoft store is reserved for the eventual reconstruction of the real aircraft.
F14D Tomcat military jet ready for departure at Stockholm-Bromma virtual airport (ESSB) with Microsoft Flight Simulator.
For the trip, a quick overflight of Belarus will be necessary. A decommissioned, unarmed F-14 Tomcat should do the trick.
F-14D Tomcat airborne from the Stockholm-Bromma (ESSB) virtual airport in flight simulation.
The flight will take place at speeds above the sound barrier.
Navigraph chart of the flight from ESSB to UKKM Antonov International airport
The Navigraph map above shows the planned route. The pink triangle shows the F-14 entering Belarus.
F-14D Tomcat in a dive for a low pass ate high speed over Belarus.
A change of itinerary is in order for a few minutes, with a dive into Belarusian territory. But, as the military say, this flight “never happened”.
F-14D Tomcat on a low pass at high speed over Belarus.
We’re obviously not invited to perform a high-speed pass. But it seems to be becoming the norm in this part of the world in recent years, so why not us?
F-14D Tomcat heading to Kyiv Hostomel airport (GML) in flight simulation
The flight to Antonov International Airport continues at top speed. We’ll soon be there.
F-14D Tomcat turning final for the Antonov International airport (UKKM) in flight simulation.
Above, the F-14 makes a descent turn for the final approach to Antonov airport, with landing gear down and flaps adjusted. In real life, the runway has been damaged by the Ukrainians themselves to prevent the Russians from easily establishing a beachhead in their country. But we’re in virtual mode, so anything goes.
A F-14D Tomcat and Ukrainian soldiers on the Antonov International airport (Hostomel) (UKKM) in flight simulation.
As we taxi, we pass a few Ukrainian army soldiers greeting the arrival of the foreign pilots.
The virtual Antonov 225 is in its hangar, the very place where it was destroyed at the start of the conflict. I’ll be using this aircraft for the next leg of my round-the-world trip, flying over Crimea, landing in Russia and finally finishing the leg in Poland. We mustn’t leave the virtual Antonov 225 in Russia, as a matter of principle.
The graphic novel “Wagner”, l’histoire secrète des mercenaires de Poutine.
“Wagner” is a top-quality graphic novel, the fruit of serious research based on numerous known and confidential sources.
Thanks to the large concentration of relevant data in a single volume, readers will quickly gain a better understanding of the international role played by this mercenary group supported by Vladimir Putin, which has gradually established itself in Mali, the Central African Republic, Libya and Syria, before attacking the Ukrainians.
The book includes the names of numerous companies, corporations and foundations (Concord, IRA [Internet Research Agency], SEWA Security Services, Lobaye Invest, M-Finance, M-Invest, Meroe Gold, Midas Resources, First Industrial Company, International Global Logistic [IGL], Alpha Development, Marko Mining, Prime Security, etc.) and a host of players who played a major role in sharing control of natural resources (mines, forests, etc.) in the Central African Republic and Mali.
The book shows how the short-sightedness of certain politicians and intelligence services enabled Wagner to gain a foothold in Africa without too much difficulty. It sheds light on the hasty departure of the French in Mali and the Chinese south of Bamako.
African leaders and customs officials turn a blind eye to the transfer of gold and diamonds to Russia. But I don’t have to dig very far in my memory to point out that many great powers have enjoyed similar treatment in other places on our beautiful planet.
Scriptwriter and illustrator Thierry Chavant is careful not to over-censor the actions of Wagner’s mercenaries, who sometimes think of themselves as soldiers. The explicit drawings shed light on the crimes committed by these killers, including rape, torture and the systematic elimination of hundreds of people at a time.
Despite these radical methods, the mercenaries do not have it easy against determined opponents. Wagner lost many fighters to the jihadists in Africa, but far fewer than in Ukraine, where the group suffered a literal debacle, with tens of thousands killed and wounded.
Even Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin lost their lives when the private jet they were in exploded over Russia. The question I still ask myself today: how can anyone be so stupid as to continue to fly calmly over Russia after having tried to seize power by force a few weeks earlier?
The book confirms that international geostrategy has two faces: an acceptable side, where diplomats and businessmen work hard to gain advantages for themselves or their countries. But there’s also a much more violent side, where the main principles give way to the desire to win new territories with the wealth they contain. And there, any means are good enough to achieve the goal, be it obscure financing, threats, summary executions, overthrowing governments or even modern-day slavery.
The graphic novel “Accidental Czar: The life and lies of Vladimir Putin”.
Note: The excerpts are taken from the French version of “Tsar par accident” and re-translated into English using DeepL.
Author Andrew S. Weiss has worked at the White House, the Pentagon, the State Department, and so on. He points out: “If someone had told me at the time that a former KGB non-commissioned officer – who had never really shone – a certain Vladimir Putin […] – would be promoted from the back rooms of the Kremlin directly to the head of the country, I would have told you to get yourself treated”. He adds: “What we think we know about him is often a clever mix of counter psychology and misinterpretations of Russia‘s thousand-year-old history “. His staging as a tough guy “allows him to come across as more intelligent – and more competent – than he really is. […] “.
The graphic novel “Accident Czar” tells the story of how Vladimir Putinfound himself in power at a time when his rather lacklustre career was destined for a lesser position. But the same could be said of some of the world’s dictators, presidents, kings and ministers over the ages who have been blessed with good fortune. They too have taken advantage of favorable opportunities to climb the ladder too high for their natural talent. The nation then pays the price until the person’s overthrow, exile or death.
Still, we have to give Putin credit for persisting, for hanging on, despite setbacks and rejections. To join the KGB, he was told to study or join the army. He did so and received his diploma.
In 1975, he joined the KGB. But it wasn’t the big missions he had dreamed of that awaited him, but local fieldwork. He failed to impress his superiors with the results he achieved. Following a brawl in the subway, he was transferred to Dresden in 1985, where his missions were meaningless due to lack of budget. In 1999, President Clinton was told that Putin would be the next Russian president. What had happened between 1985 and 1999 for Putin to suddenly emerge from obscurity and become President of Russia?
Credit must be given to his work ethic, but above all to his loyalty to his bosses in an organization that favors personal ties. Yeltsin, the president at the time, sensed his end was coming and offered Putin a deal. The author writes: “He would make him president if he agreed to protect him and his family“.
Just as Hindenburg believed he could manipulate Hitler by giving him access to the highest echelons of government, so Yeltsin thought he could do the same with Putin. In both cases, it was a costly mistake for Europe and the world.
The book reviews the rise of the Russian oligarchs, and the rapprochement of power for Putin’s friends. Andrew Weiss points out: “One of the points that foreigners don’t always grasp is that Russia is a society that operates on the basis of personal ties, rather than within the framework of institutions or the rule of law.“
In the years following the fall of the Berlin Wall, important sectors of the Russian economy were taken over by corrupt officials and KGB agents, as well as by the mafia. As the author writes: “Vladimir Kumarin, all-powerful boss of the notorious Tambov gang, ruled the country“.
Vladimir Putin’s support for the United States after the attacks of September 11, 2001 brought him closer to George W. Bush and his father George H. W. Bush, with whom he even went fishing in Kennebunkport. He hoped to revive the moribund Russian economy and gain the freedom to control the Russian media.
What’s most astonishing to me is that, during this period, Putin approved the highly controversial establishment of American and NATO bases across the former Soviet Union (Uzbekistan,Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan). With this gesture, he was seeking stabilization with the West. With the causes of the September 11th 2001 attacks still being debated around the world today, especially in the most informed circles, Putin was later forced to reflect on the relevance and consequences of his decision to authorize new American and NATO bases near Russia.
The Russian president quickly realizes that he doesn’t carry much weight in the diplomatic balance against a superpower like the United States. He is not recognized as a player to be reckoned with. With a view to better understanding between the West and Russia, the author stresses the importance of better understanding the grievances of both sides. He points out that this is sorely lacking.
Especially since the Kremlin is convinced that “demands for political change are always the result of Western-backed conspiracies“. All the major nations, by dint of monitoring each other and trying to influence the internal management of other countries, are projecting their intentions and no longer believe that a protest can come from the bottom up, based on a serious desire to improve certain detestable policies.
The author takes a look back at the problems surrounding Russia’s territorial security through the ages, invaded in turn by the Mongols, Napoleon and Hitler: “[Russia] traditionally relies on annexed territories to act as a buffer between the motherland and any external threat“. He also discusses the Chechen conflict, the fight against terrorism, political interference in neighboring states and Russian involvement in the 2016 US elections.
Andrew S. Weiss covers a lot of ground, and other themes find their way into the book: the history of the Cold War, Trump, Snowden, Wikileaks, the Sochi Olympics and the work of Maria Butina, a Russian agent who managed to penetrate the upper circles of the American Republican Party.
It was his belief in the irreversible decline of the West that enabled Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.
The author concludes with a remark on the invasion of that country and the indiscriminate bombing of civilian targets: “The world is beginning to understand that Putin was never the strategist he claimed to be. He is an improviser caught in his own trap”.
Allow me to make a comment about the invasion of Ukraine. This country is to receive fighter planes from the Allied States to protect its territory, which deeply offends Russia. However, I would like to remind you that during the Second World War, the Soviet Union accepted a great deal of outside help for its defense on the Eastern Front. To name just one aircraft and country, the Soviet Union obtained 877 B-25 Mitchell bombers from the USA.
Vladimir Putin claims that he feels trapped by NATO. To improve his strategic position, he invades Ukraine and destroys most of its important installations, both civilian and military, killing and starving thousands in the process.
The great powers, and especially the dictatorships, find it infinitely difficult to think out of the box when they know that they have access to a military solution. Soldiers and bombs will settle a long-standing dispute.
By adopting a pattern of thinking from the Middle Ages, Vladimir Putin has created a rebound effect. Many neighboring countries now live in fear of an unwarranted attack. Rather than diminishing the military capacity of neighboring countries as he would like, Putin has only succeeded in strengthening their will to unite and rearm.
For example, Germany was to develop, in partnership with other countries, the next fighter jet to fly in the European sky. This would, of course, take years to design, but little thought was given to it. The country had clearly been on the path of pacifism for decades. The invasion of Ukraine changed everything. The Germans are ramping up the pace so much that they are now ordering existing aircraft already on the market. To hell with research, delays and especially the fact that the aircraft will come from the United States.
The German government has chosen the American F-35. This military jet has the characteristic of being able to transport the nuclear weapon in a stealthy manner.
Russia will now have to redouble its efforts to monitor the skies over Europe for this powerful aircraft which is difficult to detect and capable of inflicting heavy losses in the event of a conflict.
It has also been noted that the majority of damage in Ukraine has come from air attacks. Because the Patriot missile defense system is only effective at short range, the Germans recently visited Israel to learn more about the Arrow 3. This defensive interceptor system is capable of destroying missiles at medium and long ranges, even those flying outside the earth’s atmosphere.
A nuclear-capable US stealth fighter for the German Air Force? A long-range missile defense system on German territory? The country was a long way from any of these discussions in early 2022. Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine have reignited the arms race for many countries.
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Vladimir Putin‘s war against Ukraine has finally had an unexpected effect: Germany has woken up to its national security and its responsibility to NATO. The Germans have announced that they will now invest massively to equip themselves with military forces worthy of the name. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken of spending around 100 billion euros over the next few years.
Russia’s unwarranted invasion of Ukraine has certainly brought back old memories in Germany. With Operation Barbarossa in 1941, Hitler had attacked Russia by surprise, despite having given his word, resulting in the biggest battle of all time. Millions of people died in this one conflict.
A non-aggression agreement between two countries remains valid only until one of the two partners changes his mind. That is as good as it gets. The Germans showed this to Russia in 1941.
With Russia invading a free country like Ukraine, Germany has realized that it cannot take anything for granted anymore. Today the country is in a vulnerable position and needs to increase its autonomy in the face of a potential attack, especially since most NATO members do not take seriously their responsibility towards military spending.
Moreover, it can no longer really count on the intervention of the United States. American foreign policy and its vision of NATO are now likely to change every four years, depending on whether Trump or one of his allies is elected. This is nothing to secure Europe. Putin put an end to daydreaming.
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