The Iranian population chose a moderate leader during the 2017 election. This is good news for the country and also for their neighbours. At the same time, Donald Trump, who is visiting the Middle East, reinforces the importance of lowering the political tensions in the region.
But at the same time, the United States announce the signature of a 350 billion dollars contract with Saudi Arabia, a contract that will provide Saudi Arabia with armaments and support for the next ten years. Before that contract, Saudi Arabia was already the country that spent the most amount of money for military equipment in the world.
With Iran and Saudi Arabia not getting along very well, it is easy to imagine the impact that this military contract will have on the Iranian leaders.
If I don’t get along well with my neighbour and the latter signs a 350 billion dollar contract to acquire and maintain armaments, I do not believe that my natural reaction will be one of understanding and stability, and even less of demilitarization. First, I will ask myself what is the purpose of all the armaments and, if I am just a bit realistic, I will imagine that there are possibilities that my neighbour could eventually use those against me.
Every country around the world, even those who call themselves « neutral », have strategic interests to promote and defend. But to wish for stability with military contracts of such a nature is to live in dreamland.
For more articles on geopolitics on my web site, click on the following link : Geopolitics
“Patrick Cockburn spotted the emergence of ISIS much earlier than anybody else and wrote about it with a depth of understanding that was in a league of its own.” – Press Gazette Journalist of the Year Judges
The book presents a bigger picture of what is happening in the Middle East than what we are normally allowed to watch in the news. The reader is presented with both sides of several stories and this really helps to get a better understanding of the different conflicts.
Cover of Patrick Cockburn’s book “The Rise of Islamic State”
Of lies and limited accuracy of the news
The author shows how lies are easily fabricated on a battlefield. He also explains the limited accuracy of news reports, such as when a “chosen” reporter is travelling, protected by an army or when reporters use second-hand information (often not verified) to prepare their news reports. It also seems pretty hard for a news channel to refuse to air a story when there are doubts about it, especially when all the competitors are reporting the same news.
I am including quotes (in italic) from the book as they provide excellent summaries. Some are from the author himself, others are from the sources he found to write his book. The author addresses so many subjects that it impossible to cover everything in a small review like the present one. So I’ll be as succinct as possible to present the reader with a broad idea of the book’s content.
Fear
Fear is the main factor behind many irrational political decisions. Fear leads to radical policies, religions and propaganda. It is often related to the fact that a very small group of people leading a country, a state or a region think that they can lose the political power that gives them undue privileges over the rest of their population. The greater the advantages, the greater the fear.
The political “solutions”, most of the time irrational, create tensions or aggravate the existing problems and only help to increase instability.
Saudi Arabia was initially helping ISIS because of fear of Jihadists operating within Saudi Arabia and fear of Shia powers abroad. As for Turkey, it is more afraid of the Kurds than it is of ISIS. So for a long period of time, it kept its border with Syria open: it helped ISIS to maintain a rear base.
The author says: “There is something hysterical and exaggerated about Saudi fear of Shia expansionism, since the Shia are powerful only in the handful of countries where they are in the majority or are a strong minority. Of fifty-seven Muslim countries, just four have a Shia majority” (p.102)
The demonization of religions other than Wahhabism
In the case of Saudi Arabia, the demonization of religions other than Wahhabism and the spreading of hate through social media have created a fertile ground for ISIS to grow.
The author says: “[…] The Saudis need a serious attempt to reform their educational system which currently demonizes Shias, Sufis, Christians, Jews and other sects and religions. They need to stop the preaching of hate from so many satellite stations, and not allow a free ride for their preachers of hate on the social media”.(p.107)
“The “Wahhabization” of mainstream Sunni Islam is one of the most dangerous development of our era” (p.108)
Money helps increase the polarization between Sunni and Shia
ISIS could not have risen without the financial help from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Since ISIS thrives on tensions between Sunni and Shia, anything that increase that tension will benefit this terrorist group: “There is no doubt that well-financed Wahhabi propaganda has contributed to the deepening and increasingly violent struggle between Sunni and Shia” (p.99)
“A crucial feature in the rise of Wahhabism is the financial and political might of Saudi Arabia. Dr Allawi says that if, for example, a pious Muslim wants to found a seminary in Bangladesh, there are not many places he can obtain £20,000 other than from Saudi Arabia. But if the same person wants to oppose Wahhabism, then he will have “to fight with limited resources”” (p. 108)
“This polarization between the two religious groups was only intensified by the hot and cold war between the US and Russia. Proxies were at play here with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies, backed by the US, facing off against Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, supported by Russia”(p.71)
Back cover of Patrick Cockburn’s book: “The Rise of Islamic State”
Propaganda that made al-Qaeda look stronger and more effective than it actually was, with reference to the 9/11 attacks
There are multiple sections in the book which relate to the September 11th 2001 attacks. Here are some of the author’s observations (in italic). I have also added some personal comments which are clearly identified as such:
The Pearl Harbour moment of the 9/11 attacks
The author says: “The shock of 9/11 provided a Pearl Harbor moment in the US when public revulsion and fear could be manipulated to implement a pre-existing neo-conservative agendaby targeting Saddam Hussein and invading Iraq”(p.100).
Note: the following four paragraphs are my personal comments on the “Pearl Harbor moment”:
A “Pearl Harbor” moment means that in order for the American public to approve an attack in a foreign country, it needed to see something terrible happening in the United States. For example, before the very obvious destruction of war ships at Pearl Harbor by the Japanese, the American population refused to be engaged in World War 2.
During the 9/11 attacks and later on, the Pentagon’s eighty cameras have not captured anything close to a Boeing hitting the building. You had to believe that it happened the way the news told you since there were no pictures and no videos of a Boeing close to or in pieces on the Pentagon property.
The Medias showed instead, over and over, the World Trade Center Twin Towers crashing to the ground after being hit by one aircraft, even though the buildings were built to resist multiple impacts, through a “mesh” design, a lesson learned after what happened on the Empire State Building years ago. Some people believed that the buildings crumbled due to the high temperature, but most neglected the FEMA’s report that got out later on stating that the temperature never rose above 300 or 400 degrees in the buildings, hundreds of degrees short from what was needed to melt steel.
The free-falling towers of the World Trade Center were the Pearl Harbor moment needed to instill fear and facilitate the implementation of a pre-existing neo-conservative agenda. The American voters would not have approved a war abroad if the buildings had been standing after a single impact. It’s almost like the world should believe that the World Trade Center was built using the poorest American engineering possible, while not learning from lessons of the past. For more info on this specific subject:
In 2001, al-Qaeda was an “ineffectual” organization
Mr Cockburn is one of very few reporters who is not afraid to present al-Qaeda as it really was in 2001, an emerging organization that was far from being able to mastermind and execute complex attacks such as the 9/11 attacks. (This also explains why, soon after the attacks, international news reports presented a video of Ben Laden denying responsibility for the attacks. A video that was not shown ever again. But millions of people saw it before it was censored by the main news channels).
“At the time of 9/11, al-Qaeda was a small, generally ineffectual organization” (p.59). The term “ineffectual” refers to the inability to produce a desired effect.
The implementation of the neo-conservative agenda
This really means that the pre-existing American neo-conservative agenda could not rely on Al-Qaeda’s experience. Instead, one or more experienced organizations were needed for the financing, planning and execution of the 9/11 attacks. Only after the facts could the blame be put on Al Qaeda since it was, after all the media propaganda, very well-known to the American public. An artificial link was then made with Iraq, allowing for an invasion that sixty percent of the American voters approved.
Sixty percent of the US voters were misled
“The name al-Qaeda has always been applied flexibly when identifying an enemy. In 2003 and 2004 in Iraq, as armed Iraqi opposition to the American and British-led occupation mounted, US officials attributed most attacks to Al-Qaeda, though many were carried out by nationalist and Baathist groups. Propaganda like this helped to persuade nearly 60 percent of US voters prior to the Iraq invasion that there was a connection between Saddam Hussein and those responsible for 9/11, despite the absence of any evidence for this. In Iraq itself, indeed throughout the entire Muslim world, these accusations have benefited al-Qaeda by exaggerating its role in the resistance to the US and British occupation” (p. 53).
The fall of Mosul
ISIS needed only 6000 fighters to win the Battle of Mosul. Yet, they were facing one million Iraqi soldiers. How was that possible? The author sees three reasons:
The cooperation from the Iraqi Sunnis, who were sensing that they would be better off with ISIS than the Shias.
Corruption at all levels in the Iraqi army. “As one former minister put it “the Iraqi government is an institutionalized kleptocracy”. Another politician who does not want to be named says “[…] People pay money to get into the army [so they can get a salary] – but they are investors not soldiers” (p.77)
The fact that the Iraqi army was no longer a national army since the well-trained Iraqi Sunni soldiers were sidelined.
Syria: President Bachar Assad was not as weak as expected
Both the outside world and opposition viewed President Assad as far weaker than he actually was. They both thought that he would be defeated without an organized air campaign.
A major oversight on the war in Syria
“A blind spot for the US and other Western powers has been their failure to see that by supporting the armed uprising in Syria, they would inevitably destabilize Iraq and provoke another round of its sectarian civil war” (p.73)
Five different conflicts within Syria
The Syrian conflict is extremely complicated since there are many different political and religious interests at stake: “The Syrian crisis comprises five different conflicts that cross-infect and exacerbate each other. The war commenced with a genuine popular revolt against a brutal and corrupt dictatorship, but it soon became intertwined between the Sunni against the Alawites, and that fed into the Shia-Sunni conflict in the region as a whole, with a standoff between the US, Saudi Arabia and the Sunni states on the one side, and Iran, Iraq and the Lebanese Shia on the other. In addition to this, there is a revived cold war between Moscow and the West, exacerbated by the conflict in Libya and more recently made even worse by the crisis in the Ukraine” (p.94)
In Syria, it is either Assad or ISIS
ISIS is the strongest opposition force in Syria. If Assad falls, ISIS takes his place: “Syrians have to choose between a violent dictatorship, in which the power is monopolized by the presidency and brutish security services, or an opposition that shoots children in the face for minor blasphemy and sends pictures of decapitated soldiers to the parents of their victims.” (p.81)
The God-given victories
“The appeal of the Islamic State to Sunni Muslims in Syria, Iraq, and across the world comes in part from a sense that its victories are God-given and inevitable, so any failure damages its claim to divine support” (p.159)
The solution to the Syrian conflict will come from outside the country
“Many Syrians now see the outcome of their civil war resting largely with the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. In this, they are probably right”.
Side notes
War is never about “combat” only. There is always an underlying political process going on. So, even if a country seems defeated militarily, enormous political efforts will have to be made in order to create a new stable order.
“Conviction that a toxic government is the root of all evil is the public position of most oppositions, but it is dangerous to trust one’s own propaganda”.
“A government or an army can try to maintain secrecy by banning reporters but they will pay the price as the vacuum of news is filled with information supplied by their enemies”.
Islamic State, Daesh and ISIS: three names that represent the same terrorist group
In order to avoid any confusion, the author, Alexandre Adler, immediately makes clear that three names represent the same group: Islamic State, Daesh and ISIS. He explains what the ultimate goal of ISIS is: to establish a Caliphate on the Levant, a territory that spreads from Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf and that includes Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Palestine.
The concept of “caliphate” and the reasons behind the desire to re-establish it are explained clearly.
Changes in the balance of power between Sunnis and Shiites
ISIS uses decomposing zones to settle. The group feeds on very high tensions created by increased inequality between two groups: Sunnis and Shiites. The Sunnis, a more conservative religious group, has lost a lot of influence following Saddam Hussein’s death. Today, there is an effort to ensure that the leaders in charge of Iraq take into consideration the interests of both groups.
Radical movements look for dissatisfied people
Sunnis are aware of the increasing strength of the Shiite axis: Beirut, Damascus, under Bachar Assad, Bagdad under Maniki, and Iran, who is inhabited by a vast majority of Shiites. Acting on the new imbalance of powers, ISIS has managed to recruit military officers as well as dissatisfied Sunnis and Arab tribe’s chiefs.
The author insists on the fact that radical movements basically dig in the dissatisfied crowd, the left aside individuals. He gives another example of a situation that is almost certain to create dissatisfaction: colonization.
Dividing a territory without taking into account the human factor
Colonization modifies the balance of power within a population. The author being French, he writes about the way France intervened in Sahara, dividing the territory without taking into account the human factor. As new boundaries were being drawn, the Touareg tribe was suddenly divided in three. This tribe refusing to obey to a new authority, in this case the Malian government, tensions built up and increased with time, since no acceptable compromise could be found.
From Libya, dictator Gaddafi understood that he could take advantage of the situation. He started supporting the Touareg resistance movement. After Gaddafi was killed, the Touareg looked for support by getting closer to jihadists. Progressively, a historically autonomous tribe became a friendly land for jihadists.
Between Al Qaeda and ISIS, Boko Haram chooses ISIS
The author explains that in Nigeria, Boko Haram was born of internal tensions between the north side of the country, which holds the political power, and the south where the population benefits from revenues generated by vast petroleum resources. In 2014, Boko Haram chose to fight along ISIS. Why? ISIS, contrary to Al Qaeda, wants a total war against the Shiites. Boko Haram picked the most radical movement.
Appearance and disappearance of the caliphal power
The caliphal power establishes a theological and political continuity of the State created in 622 by the Prophet in Medina. The author explains the reasons for the multiple appearances and disappearances of that caliphal power since the year 622. The last change was brought in 1923, when Mustapha Kemal abolished the caliphate.
Which religious group represents the real Islam?
Tensions exist between Sunnis and Shiites about the caliphate and the group which really represents the real Islam. This division dates from centuries ago. Shiites consider that Ali, the fourth successor of the Prophet, was victim of a plot at a time when he was attempting to achieve a moral and state straightening of Islam. Shiites consider that they are the real Islam beholders. They have been defending that point of view for centuries, even through Sunnis persecutions against them.
Shiites are against an early reestablishment of the caliphate
The author explains the profound differences of opinion as for the philosophic, theological and political views between both groups. Because of those reasons, Shiites are against an early reestablishment of the caliphate, which leads the most radical Sunnis, and through them ISIS, to lead a total war against them.
The Sunni axis is represented by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, although there is a degree of rivalry between those two countries.
Saudi Arabia’s fear
Saudis fear the birth of a powerful Shiite political movement on their territory. They estimate that there would be a risk to lose the control on oil installations, which constitute the base of Saudi Arabia’s economic wealth. The author writes that Saudis are financing “[my translation] all the anti-Shiites movement in the Arab world, including the Sunni jihad in Iraq”.
The return of Iran
The return of Iran, a Shiite power, on the world stage, adds to an already complex equation. The reader is told that there are natural tensions between Persian Iran and the Arab world. But there is something else: Iran, as well as few other countries in the region, is now supporting more moderate policies: “[my translation] Iran is radically changing its orientation and now prepares his return on the world stage as a more open country, pluralist, supporting a Shiite democracy. Although this is not a perfect democracy, the country is now living its perestroika”.
A fight between extremism and moderation
The adoption of more moderate positions is far from pleasing an extremist political group like ISIS. The 2013 americano-iranian agreement on nuclear talks, and the continued progress made in 2015, corresponds to a net increase in terrorist acts committed by ISIS.
Atrocities against humanity set in an historical context
The Medias constantly report on the atrocities perpetrated by ISIS. According to the author, all that media attention gives a false impression on the real strength of Islamic State: ISIS would now be down to committing those terrible acts against humanity due to its relative weakness.
The author links ISIS actions with war crimes and atrocities perpetrated by other regimes throughout decades. He situates those actions at a time that always corresponds to a last attempt to survive before being completely defeated and replaced by modern and moderate political parties.
A little reserve
The only reserve I have on the book concerns the passage where the author repeats, without nuances and like other well-known Medias, that Ben Laden is responsible for the New York 9/11 attacks. This version of facts has always been strongly debated, the disagreements starting within hours after the attack. And, contrary to popular belief, it was not brought forward only by what we call the “conspirationists”. But everyone knows that the more you repeat something, the more it becomes a reality, an undisputable truth. Noam Chomsky and other renowned authors have covered this aspect at length.
Title: Le Califat du sang Author: Alexandre Adler Edition: Grasset&Fasquelle, 2014. ISBN : 978-2-246-85457-9
In 1986, the Propair Company’s hangar was located very close from our flight service station in Rouyn-Noranda. There were frequent exchanges between their staff and our FSS’s. One day, one of their employees told us that two American pilots had just come to the airport to take delivery of a Caribou DHC-4 cargo aircraft that had been sold by Propair.
The aircraft would be exported. The DHC-4 is known to be a very practical aircraft as it can carry heavy loads and manage to takeoff or land on an extremely short distance.The pilots took-off with their used Caribou and we did not hear any more from them until the world Medias started to talk about the Irangate affair. I can talk about it today as it is a public affair: details can be found on the internet.
The Rouyn-Noranda Propair Company had in fact sold not one but two used DHC-4 Caribous to a consultant working for a panamean company. One of the DHC-4 was later registered in El Salvador. One of the two Caribous experienced an engine failure over the mountains, enroute towards El Salvador. In order to stay in the air, and considering the extreme outside moisture and air temperature, the crew had no other choice than to get rid of some weight. Spare parts in the cargo bay, including a brand new engine still in its crate, were pushed outside the plane, falling in the jungle below. But the plane had eventually no other choice than to land before arriving to its initially planned destination, Ilopango.
All this was linked to the Contras who were engaged in warfare operations against the Nicaraguan leftist government of Daniel Ortega. In order to finance the covert operations, a secret budget was necessary: some Americans were selling arms to Iran, even if there was an official ban, and the money received was financing warfare operations. A journalist who had followed this story closely and made important discoveries was found dead. He had apparently committed suicide by shooting himself twice in the head…
One of the pilots who departed Rouyn-Noranda with a DHC-4 was named Sawyer. This man would later fly, covert operations organized by the CIA, a C123 cargo type aircraft that was shot down in southern Nicaragua. The pilot and co-pilot were killed but a passenger, Eugene Hasenfus, parachuted out knowing the aircraft would soon crash. He was interrogated and revealed the details that allowed the discovery of the secret deal with Iran.
The Oliver North’s testimony in front of the Congress kept that story alive for a long time. Eventually, like everything, this story was progressively forgotten. Thirty years later, I still remember the numerous phone calls that the flight service station received from the Medias about this affair.
A book published in 2013 and titled “Raymond Boulanger, le pilote mercenaire” adds several details to this story, since Mr Boulanger was himself a pilot hired by the CIA.
For more real life stories on the Rouyn-Noranda flight service station and flight service specialists, click here:
For bilingual readers, here is an excellent book filled with practical information that is not catering only to computer science specialists. It is filled with advice that should help you avoid trouble when using your electronic devices. But, before going any further, here are some facts that may be of some interest to you:
1. The Pentagon has to deal with 250,000 direct threats every hour against its computer systems. Since the attacks may sometimes use as much as one million computers simultaneously, the Pentagon uses seven million computers to protect its different systems.
2. A password using 10 characters (no punctuation signs, no special characters) can be deciphered within ten minutes (and not only by a pro). You must add punctuation and special characters in your password in order to make it more difficult to decode. This password must be at least 10 characters long.
3. In 2012, there were 250 million zombie computers across the planet. A zombie computer can be your own computer taken over to launch many types of attacks without you knowing. It uses the resources on your computer without your authorization. This book offers a simple method to verify the integrity of your operating system, which can be done in a few seconds. You do not need to hire expert help.
4. 80% of businesses ignore that they are victims of cyber spying. We had a good example with Sony’s movie, “ The Interview” in 2014.
5. The global cost of cyber crimes in Europe, in 2012, was estimated at 750 billion euros. One internet user out of four was a victim of some kind of cyber crime in 2012.
6. At least 100,000 people are working in total secrecy for the United States in order to prepare attacks against external servers. In China, it is estimated that 300,000 employees are working on the same goal. Naturally, many other countries make significant efforts in this endeavor, like Russia, Iran and Israel, to name a few.
The book includes numerous and simple explanations aimed at helping everyone to be aware of the methods used by cyber spies. Politicians and businessmen can certainly benefit from the suggested improvements with regards to the use of personal electronic devices.
Cyber criminality is also discussed, and excellent advice is given to help everyone fight malware programs. You are also provided with a simple method to show you how to react if you ever are victim of ransomware. Some practical information is also provided to help protect your personal data, particularly your confidential banking data.
The author explains the difference between a virus and an IT worm. Few extremely sophisticated IT worms are presented, like STUXNET. This worm was used against Iranian nuclear installations in order to slow down their research program. You can learn about other worms like FLAME, GAUSS and SHAMOON.
The indirect risks resulting out of the use of viruses and IT worms are not negligible. When an IT worm is discovered within a computer system, its architecture becomes accessible to everyone. Criminal networks can then replicate or try to modify the IT worm, through reverse engineering, to new ends.
The reader learns how a classical DDOS attack is performed. There is also information about radio electric attacks that target telecommunications.
The book offers a number of interesting website resources, including:
1. If you think that there is an intrusion in your network: http://sourceforge.net/projects/ipscan 2. To locate an IP address: cut and paste all the source code information included within the e-mail and analyse it through the following site: http://www.iptrackeronline.com/email-header-analysis.php 3. To encrypt your important data: http://www.truecrypt.org/ 4. For anonymous use of internet, the book suggests that you use a VPN: http://cyberghostvpn.com/. There is also a possibility to download the TAILS suite at: http://tails.boum.org/about/index.fr.html jointly with Gparted: http://gparted.sourceforge.net/. Tails uses TOR to connect to Internet.
The appropriate way to do back-ups is described in the book. If you are a social network user, you will have access to an entire chapter about Facebook and Twitter and others. The weaknesses in these networks as well as ways to protect yourself and the confidentiality of your personal information are described at length.
IT security within businesses is another important chapter. The author shows how the human factor is often neglected in the design of security strategy. The reader learns about the ways cyber spies manage to steal important data from companies. A few simple modifications of daily habits are sometimes just what is needed to prevent the loss of sensitive information.
In conclusion, this is a very interesting book that will help any reader to protect personal information stored in mobile devices and home or office computers.
Title: Menaces cybernétiques – Le manuel du combattant Author : Yves-Marie Peyry Éditions du Rocher, 2013 ISBN : 978-2-268-07513-6 Collection « Lignes de feu » directed by Daniel Hervouët
