Category: Geopolitics

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Geopolitics

Germany and rearmament.

Vladimir Putin claims that he feels trapped by NATO. To improve his strategic position, he invades Ukraine and destroys most of its important installations, both civilian and military, killing and starving thousands in the process.

The great powers, and especially the dictatorships, find it infinitely difficult to think out of the box when they know that they have access to a military solution. Soldiers and bombs will settle a long-standing dispute.

By adopting a pattern of thinking from the Middle Ages, Vladimir Putin has created a rebound effect. Many neighboring countries now live in fear of an unwarranted attack. Rather than diminishing the military capacity of neighboring countries as he would like, Putin has only succeeded in strengthening their will to unite and rearm.

For example, Germany was to develop, in partnership with other countries, the next fighter jet to fly in the European sky. This would, of course, take years to design, but little thought was given to it. The country had clearly been on the path of pacifism for decades. The invasion of Ukraine changed everything. The Germans are ramping up the pace so much that they are now ordering existing aircraft already on the market. To hell with research, delays and especially the fact that the aircraft will come from the United States.

The German government has chosen the American F-35. This military jet has the characteristic of being able to transport the nuclear weapon in a stealthy manner.

Russia will now have to redouble its efforts to monitor the skies over Europe for this powerful aircraft which is difficult to detect and capable of inflicting heavy losses in the event of a conflict.

It has also been noted that the majority of damage in Ukraine has come from air attacks. Because the Patriot missile defense system is only effective at short range, the Germans recently visited Israel to learn more about the Arrow 3. This defensive interceptor system is capable of destroying missiles at medium and long ranges, even those flying outside the earth’s atmosphere.

A nuclear-capable US stealth fighter for the German Air Force? A long-range missile defense system on German territory? The country was a long way from any of these discussions in early 2022. Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine have reignited the arms race for many countries.

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Geopolitics

Vladimir Putin and Germany

Vladimir Putin‘s war against Ukraine has finally had an unexpected effect: Germany has woken up to its national security and its responsibility to NATO. The Germans have announced that they will now invest massively to equip themselves with military forces worthy of the name. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken of spending around 100 billion euros over the next few years.

Russia’s unwarranted invasion of Ukraine has certainly brought back old memories in Germany. With Operation Barbarossa in 1941, Hitler had attacked Russia by surprise, despite having given his word, resulting in the biggest battle of all time. Millions of people died in this one conflict.

A non-aggression agreement between two countries remains valid only until one of the two partners changes his mind. That is as good as it gets. The Germans showed this to Russia in 1941.

With Russia invading a free country like Ukraine, Germany has realized that it cannot take anything for granted anymore. Today the country is in a vulnerable position and needs to increase its autonomy in the face of a potential attack, especially since most NATO members do not take seriously their responsibility towards military spending.

Moreover, it can no longer really count on the intervention of the United States. American foreign policy and its vision of NATO are now likely to change every four years, depending on whether Trump or one of his allies is elected. This is nothing to secure Europe. Putin put an end to daydreaming.

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Geopolitics Human behavior

Stupidity and power

During the turbulent times that United States is going through, it is appropriate to remember the Third Basic Law of human stupidity as defined by Carlo M. Cipolla : « Is stupid a person who causes a loss to another person or a group of other persons while not deriving any benefit for himself and possibly even inflicting losses on himself ». Losses can be of all kinds, such as a rapid decrease in the support network, a greater difficulty in accessing financial resources, loss of credibility or even possible civil lawsuits for inappropriate acts.

According to Mr Cipolla, « the destructive potential of stupid people depends on two main factors. First, the genetic factor […] and second, the position of power and eminence in society ». « Essentially, stupid people are dangerous because people have difficulty imagining and understanding unreasonable behaviour ».

Click on the link for books on human behaviour on my blog.

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Controversial subjects Geopolitics

Donald Trump’s re-election in 2020.

US President Donald Trump is preparing for his Fall 2020 re-election by practicing a recipe used by the Chicago Daley machine. Father and son Daley ruled Chicago for decades using police repression.

Policeman Derek Chauvin, who killed African-American George Floyd, offers the President of the United States an opportunity to use this recipe. The murder being followed by protests and looting, Trump complained about the weakness of the leaders and suggested not only that law enforcement officials dominate the street, but that use of the military may be required against the population.

Here is a short excerpt from a summary of the book “Chicago“:

“The exploitation of racial fears was quite successful. Daley was defending his policies by saying that “ most people are more worried about a black uproar than of a mayor that orders the use of lethal force to put an end to it and they recognized themselves far less in pacific protesters than in policemen that hit them with truncheons” (p.319).”

Cover of the book "Histoire de Chicago" by Andrew Diamond and Pap Ndiaye
Cover of the book “Histoire de Chicago” by Andrew Diamond and Pap Ndiaye

The high social tensions and unnecessary violence that follow the police repression generate ever more fear, and it is this fear that some politicians take advantage of.

The most conservative politicians have long understood that installing fear in the population pays off politically. It is an easy and expeditious method. The government is responsible for “dominating” real and more often fictitious enemies and, in doing so, reassures the population while diminishing the rights and freedom of the American population so that it can act as it pleases later on other matters.

Even the usually silent American generals have made public appearances in an attempt to save American values. According to several observers, there is a gradual shift towards a seriously worrisome  authoritarian political control.

Respect for the African-American population was the main factor at stake in the American Civil War, which lasted four years, between 1861 and 1865 and killed 750,000 people. It also cost President Lincoln his life. The problem of respect for African-Americans is still an issue.

All these people seen in protest at the death of George Floyd represent the non-racist side of the United States. It should not be forgotten that there is a large part of the American population who still dreams of retaining traditional white power: a population that cannot accept that the United States is changing and whose wealth comes from the mix of cultures and races. The solid base of American voters who support Donald Trump, this pathological liar who can say everything and its opposite in a single sentence, is not ready to give up on him.

Other non-negligible factors favor Trump during the American presidential elections in the fall of 2020: 1) a well-stocked election fund (pressure groups such as the NRA are big donors and influencers, 2) candidates from the Republican Party who approve of the Trump method or choose silence when they do not agree, 3) a hesitant Joe Biden who will not be able to stand up for confrontation during televised political debates, 4) an economy which will recover quickly with unemployment which has already started to decline, just in time for the election campaign. The right-wing media will ignore the appalling initial mismanagement of COVID-19 until the elections are over.

If I am wrong with my prediction, I will never have been so happy with my mistake!

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Controversial subjects Geopolitics

In our America, all people are equal.

With the current divisive administration in the United States under Donald Trump, citizens are more than ever willing to express their political opinions. In 2019 in Boston’s Brookline suburb, a quick walk in the neighbourhood allowed me to take the two following pictures.

In our America, all people are equal.
In our America, all people are equal.

In case your cell phone screen cannot clearly show what is written on the sign above, here it is : « In our America, all people are equal. Love wins. Black lives matter. Immigrants and refugees are welcome. Disabilities are respected. Women are in charge of their bodies. People and planet are valued over profit. Diversity is celebrated. »

On the sign below, the message is clear : « No kids in cages. »

No Kids in Cages 2019
No Kids in Cages 2019
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Geopolitics

A special place in hell.

Soon after the conclusion of the G7 in La Malbaie, Quebec, the White House’s principal adviser to trade, Peter Navarro, declared during a televised interview in United States that « there is a special place in hell for the Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau ».

Justin Trudeau has nothing to fear since, after some verification, it appears that there is no more places available in hell. Indeed, the few remaining places have already been booked for the American politicians who refuse to take action to prevent the annual murder of tens of students due to a lack of gun control.

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Controversial subjects Geopolitics

The United States, national security, steel and Canada.

The American President Donald Trump likes to raise doubts and use inexact facts to try to gain advantages. His last invention is to say that the steel and aluminum coming from Canada could endanger the national security of the United States.

Donald Trump knows very well that the United States cannot actually produce all the steel and the aluminum required for the country’s growth. Instead of making irrelevant links between the United States, the national security, steel and Canada, I suggest that Mr Trump concentrate on the United States, national security, steel and the September 11th 2001 attacks.

It seems in fact that the american buildings are quite fragile and would benefit from a lot more steel during their construction. If not, how should we understand the fall of Building 7, known as WTC-7, a 47 floor tower that crashed on itself without having even been touched by a plane during the September 11th 2001 attacks. Medias have barely raised the subject, as they were asked to be « patriots ».

Donald Trump can also diminish the time alloted to his tweets and take more time to understand what happened with the New-York Twin Towers, known as WTC-1 and WTC-2, during the September 11th 2001 attacks. The best steel in the world would not have been able to stand against the nano-thermite that was found in the remnants of the towers.

Not understanding how two planes can destroy three towers, and also questioning the free fall of the towers, some Danish physicists analyzed a few pieces of the World Trade Center’s debris under microscope. They discovered nano-thermite. Nano-thermite liquifies steel (molten steel). The discovery was announced in the Open Physics Journal. Take a few minutes to understand what it is all about (the video quality is good, except for the first five seconds) :

The American President can also request from his associates, before they get fired, to find some pictures of the remains of the Boeing 757 that is said to have hit the Pentagon. Because 17 years later, there are still no credible photos available. Even some high ranking military questioned this lack of proof.

Controversial issues

The way steel is used can also have negative consequences on the national security of the United States. There is more than 450 million guns used in the USA. I do not know how many more crazy shooters will show up in american schools before the politicians take their responsability.

Instead of acting on serious internal matters, it is easier to invent  new threats coming from outside of the United States.

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Controversial subjects Geopolitics

The United States in political transition

Proceeding step by step, Donald Trump is setting the table for a political system transition in the United States.

As he often impulsively says  what he really thinks ( his numerous tweets are proof ), his recent visit to China convinced him that it is possible to change the american political system.

He said that it would not be a bad idea to think of a way that would allow more than two successive political terms, something that is actually forbidden by the Constitution of the United States. In order to do that, he proceeds  in a similar pattern as Mussolini did and changes the American system step by step.

Not only does he attack the institutions representing the legal system, like the FBI, but he also attacks the media that do not think like he does. We could eventually see the creation of a Trump owned media that would become the official communication channel of the President.

Trump creates fictive foes by selecting several countries whose citizens are denied an entry in United States. All statistics show that crimes and attacks are in the vast majority committed by people that are already American citizens.

Donald Trump wants to become, for his supporters, the only object of their confidence and trust. He wants to be seen as the only shield that can protect them from the imaginary foes that have been created. He invents the idea of a wall that would supposedly be paid by Mexico, a ridiculous proposition that shoud have made everyone laugh from the very beginning but which nonetheless convinced the American  voters. That says it all!

The vast majority of his supporters do not have the interest, or the ability, to analyze his empty rethoric and lies, his transformation of reality. Ignorance is what creates the fear of others. He counts on the cowardice of several elected Republicans who stopped asking questions about the actions of the President in order to concentrate only on a necessary reelection.

Those who consider Donald Trump lightly risk a lot. How many had even realized that, in order to prepare his political campaign, Cambridge Analytica was already at work?

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Geopolitics

Political stability according to Donald Trump

The Iranian population chose a moderate leader during the 2017 election. This is good news for the country and also for their neighbours. At the same time, Donald Trump, who is visiting the Middle East, reinforces the importance of lowering the political tensions in the region.

But at the same time, the United States announce the signature of a 350 billion dollars contract with Saudi Arabia, a contract that will provide Saudi Arabia with armaments and support for the next ten years. Before that contract, Saudi Arabia was already the country that spent the most amount of money for military equipment in the world.

With Iran and Saudi Arabia not getting along very well, it is easy to imagine the impact that this military contract will have on the Iranian leaders.

If I don’t get along well with my neighbour and the latter signs a 350 billion dollar contract to acquire and maintain armaments, I do not believe that my natural reaction will be one of understanding and stability, and even less of demilitarization. First, I will ask myself what is the purpose of all the armaments and, if I am just a bit realistic, I will imagine that there are possibilities that my neighbour could eventually use those against me.

Every country around the world, even those who call themselves « neutral », have strategic interests to promote and defend. But to wish for stability with military contracts of such a nature is to live in dreamland.

For more articles on geopolitics on my web site, click on the following link : Geopolitics

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Geopolitics

American politics: the construction of a wall between Mexico and United States

The importance of political face saving

The way Mexico is treated by Donald Trump’s government is not politically astute. Because of a disagreement on illegal immigration between the two countries, the American President has deemed necessary to solve the problem in the public arena by using statements that make the Mexicans lose face on the world stage. When a country’s government loses face, it is a sure recipe to stall negotiations and escalate political tensions. Saying to the Mexicans that they will pay for a wall that forbids them to enter in United States is reckless.

The economic input of Mexicans in United States

The American economic growth has always relied on a good proportion of workers accepting low salaries and poor working conditions, especially when they are considered illegal workers and come from Mexico and Central America. To eliminate that manpower and force the employers to double if not triple the salaries will only help increase the price of American products and risk a decrease in competitiveness. This will also impoverish Mexico and increase the inequalities between the two countries, since many “illegal workers” send money to their family abroad.

A wall that will be inefficient in controlling the influx of drugs into the United States

While generating endless tensions between land owners, political parties and countries, the wall will also require tremendous expenses that will in the end not really help to slow down the importation of drugs into the USA. Why? 95% of the containers coming in from Europe and Asia are not inspected in depth due to lack of human resources and material, as much as for the desire to expedite commercial operations. Time is money. So there are still important holes in the screening process. The book “Ninety percent of everything”, by author Rose George, develops on that very subject:

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There is no easy way of stopping the importation of drugs in America or any other country. The importation of drugs will continue until the most serious gaps have been filled, and that means efficiently controlling what is inside the containers. This is where the billions of dollars have to be invested, not in the construction of a wall…

For more articles on geopolitics on my web site, click on the following link : Geopolitics